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For The Trees
Who is our economy FOR, anyway? About the Authors: Dave Johnson John Emerson Richard Reich Thomas Leavitt
Recent Posts: BEST OF STF: Dave's: Articles not at STF: The ATLA Speech on building a progressive infrastructure Lowering the Bar The Attack on Trial Lawyers and Tort Law Who's Behind the Attack on Liberal Professors On the Right and their communications infrastructure: Why Republicans Win Win or Lose The "Conventional Wisdom" Machine Some History of the Conservative Movement HOW TO FIGHT BACK An Amplifier Of Our Own Don't Blame the Democrats How They Do It 1 2 3 4 Getting Rolled Other: You're Gonna Get Drafted Scalia and Self-Government Who is Our Economy For? Voting Machine Story Link Collection What's Wrong with this Picture? (Voting Machines) Like Meat in the Supermarket Get Active Thin Line 1 2 3 Fixing Social Security Seeing the Forest I, II, III "Incredibly Positive News" The Breadth of It The Republican Crony Club Moon Bush Ralph Nader is a Scab John's Best Of: Kerry Smear Page Bandar Bush 9/11 Commission Report Damages Bush -- if you read it Florida Goon Squad Intimidated the Supreme Court The Use and Abuse of George Orwell Zizka's Archives (John's previous identity) Zizka Sampler News Sources: AlterNet BuzzFlash Common Dreams Cursor Drudge Retort Information Clearing House Smirking Chimp TruthOut What REALLY Happened Links to Other Weblogs: |
 1/31/2003 Jobs Going Away I got an e-mail from someone today, titled America: the first post-modern agrarian society. ...Thanks to American Big Business... There are soooo many ways to title this message: American Technology Leadership: R.I.P America: We Used to Be Relevent, Now All We Have are Nukes American Business to American Technologists: Drop Dead! Congress to Technologists: Too bad you didn't bribe us first! Business to Technologists: "Hey, You f*cked up! You trusted us!" (w/apologies to J. Belushi) I've never been a "protectionist" but I now understand exactly why the protectionists have been whining so much about the actions of American businesses. I'm out on the job market and I now get it in a really, really big way. Apparently, American companies want Americans to buy their very expensive products, just as long as they don't have to hire them to invent/design/produce or otherwise pay them to make such purchases possible. How, exactly, will this country maintain its edge in technology if there are no technology jobs and American business isn't interested in paying anyone except the CEO and the Board? Another interesting trend I've seen (and been confirmed by several recruiters I know) is making requirements in job postings so fantastic (requiring 15 yrs experience in 20 technologies that didn't exist 15 yrs ago, etc.) that they cannot possibly be filled and then using the "lack of qualified applicants" as a ruse to bring in H1B candidates as just above minimum wage. This is going on all over NYC. Just try and get a programming or system admin job at a large firm in NYC. You won't. Think such tactics are illegal? Guess again. Oh, and don't think going to your congress-weasels will help you -- they rammed an H1B extension (and added a several *million* increase in available visas) through as a hidden rider to a bill just before they split for their December break. So, while they "decry" the problems in the tech industry and the lack of jobs/jobs-going-overseas they are quietly taking money from all the usual suspects (tech firms, brokerages, et al) to put it to American technology workers as hard and as fast as they can.He then points to this Business Week article. I believe that he's on the East Coast. Here in the Silicon Valley area we hear rumors that things are much better on the East Coast. Things are certainly bad here - 25% office vacancy rate. Very high unemployment. Stores closing. Friends whose unemployment runs out and they go on food stamps. I don't see how it's going to get better. People are in debt so spending is unlikely to increase. No one is getting raises. I see nothing that promises to bring back the tech industry around here. I mean, sure, the engineer getting $10,000 a year in India will eventually spend some money, but that's a net loss of spending of $90,000 per year for each engineer here who was getting $100,000, and a loss of the whole $100,000 spent here. The overall pool of paid talent is not increasing - these are replacement jobs. And what do we hear from our country's leaders? Tax cuts for the rich and permanent massive budget deficits for the future are supposed to bring us out of this? They say it will increase the investment capital? Investing in what? They already have zillions and they aren't investing that! It's the old, "It isn't working, so let's do more of it." --- Posted at 1/31/2003 02:34:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post  
1/30/2003 The Huge Spending Increase From a story about federal budget deficits in today's NY Times: The Congressional Budget Office said today that the federal government shortfall would rise to $199 billion this year from $158 billion last year — even without any of Mr. Bush's new tax or spending proposals.So WITH the war, tax cuts and spending increases, we might be looking at a $300-400 billion deficit THIS year. That means that next year, and every year thereafter, we will have to pay somewhere from, $10-30 billion to cover the interest on THIS YEAR'S borrowing, depending on interest rates. That is a HUGE spending increase. And the following year the spending will INCREASE again, because of THAT year's deficit. Want to talk about where that money goes? Who GETS that $10-30 billion? How much control over U.S. policy will they be buying? --- Posted at 1/30/2003 08:14:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/29/2003 Money Obviously someone else has noticed that you can get a pretty good return on your money just by moving it to Euros. --- Posted at 1/29/2003 03:36:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
A Few More Words About the Speech Terrify, then harvest! --- Posted at 1/29/2003 12:54:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/28/2003 Dean I'm not sure yet who I support for President, but I like what I hear from Dean. I'm posting a "Dean Meetup" button on the left, scroll down a ways. It's a great idea - go check it out. --- Posted at 1/28/2003 10:22:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
The Speech I really think that Bush is surrounded by people who are afraid to contradict him or bring him bad news. I think he isn't aware of events outside of the good news that is brought to him. "Yes sir, you are the chosen one, sir. GOD has chosen you, sir." No one even told him that the aluminum tubes story turned out to be phony. No one even dares tell him it's pronounced "nuclear." --- Posted at 1/28/2003 10:15:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Spines CNN: Kennedy to seek new measure on war with Iraq. Senator Kennedy is asking for a new vote. "Much has changed in the many months since Congress has debated war with Iraq," the Massachusetts Democrat said in a statement released after President Bush's State of the Union address, in which Bush tried to rally the American people to the need to disarm Iraq. "U.N. inspectors are on the ground and making progress, and their work should continue," Kennedy said. "Osama bin Laden and the Korean nuclear crisis continue to pose far greater threats [than Iraq]."It looks like the Dems are growing spines. --- Posted at 1/28/2003 10:04:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Double Standard skimble writes about the difference in treatment of Martha Stewart and Thomas White (ex-Enron, current Bush Administration.) Stewart is a Democrat and will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law with public humiliation, White has a get-out-of-jail-free card and a look-the-other-way pass from the press. --- Posted at 1/28/2003 11:05:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/27/2003 Another Scenario A friend writes with a scenario - U.S. and British forces invade and become bogged down in house-to-house fighting in Baghdad's suburbs, taking and causing heavy casualties. There are very heavy civilian casualties that are well publicized by the European press. (Civilians initially refuse to enter shelters, remembering the 1991 U.S. bombing of a civilian shelter bunker with a "penetrator" bomb that incinerated everyone inside.) The heavy casualties result in massive civilian protests in London, some erupting into riots. There is a no-confidence vote and Blair's government falls. The new government withdraws British forces, leaving the U.S. alone and bogged down in urban street fighting. --- Posted at 1/27/2003 03:55:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Scenarios February, 2003, America invades Iraq. Two days after U.S. invasion begins, China attacks Taiwan. Simultaneously North Korea attacks South Korea. America must divert some forces to Asian theater. Iraq campaign slows. Responding to right-wing American think tanks' public advocacy that America follow Iraq conquest with initiatives to change other Middle Eastern governments, the Saudis, Syrians and Kuwaitis begin secretly supporting and funding Hamas, Hezbollah and other organizations to send fighters to Iraq to attack and bog down the American troops. American casualties begin to climb. Late February, Kurds seize northern Iraq and part of Turkey. Kurds, having infiltrated Iraqi intelligence, convince Iraqi “sleeper” agents to launch biological attacks on Israel, hoping to goad Israel into attacking Baghdad, thereby weakening Iraq’s ability to oppose to Kurdish state. Israel responds against Iraqi cities. March, Iran responds to “axis of evil” threats by attacking US fleet and invades Iraq from the west. They announce they have developed a dozen nuclear weapons and will use them on our forces and American homeland if their forces are attacked with nuclear weapons in any American attempt to reverse their gains. With insufficient forces in the Middle East American forces overwhelmed and begin retreat. Iran seizes western Iraq and southern oil fields. Late March, Al-Queda launches major attacks in Kashmir, driving India to attack Pakistan. Islamic fundamentalists seize power in Pakistan and Indonesia, immediately supplying al-Queda with nuclear weapons. U.S. initiates bombing campaign against Pakistan. April, responding to heavy civilian casualties in Iraq, Iran and Pakistan, Asian and European civilians demand boycott of U.S. products. International investors begin selling assets and pulling funds from U.S. OPEC announces oil will move to the Euro currency for all transactions. Dollar plunges, reaches eight dollars per Euro, causing oil to exceed US$240 per barrel. Stock market plunges to 1200. U.S., unable to borrow money to finance deficit, begins to default on bonds. --- Posted at 1/27/2003 02:17:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Scam E-mail A friend received the following e-mail. From: PayPal@billingdept.com Subject: PayPal information UPDATE. *URGENT* Dear Paypal Member Case #840650, We have worked hard to help your Paypal experience be even better. However, we have to ask aII our members for updated\correct biIIing information. PIease be advised this is mandatory. lf we do not get your updated biIIing information, your account wiII be revoked and put under review and may be canceIIed. Before we start we will need you to provide us with your email address and password. To send us that info please visit our Secure Site Paypal Billing Site http://updatepaypal.cjb.netShe wants to know what law enforcement agency this can be reported to. Does anyone know? IMPORTANT - In case you don't "get it," do not go to this website and provide your account and password! --- Posted at 1/27/2003 01:20:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Moon Bush Other webloggers have been writing about the close ties between the Moonies and the Republicans, so I'll take this opportunity to link to a piece I wrote in July, titled "Moon Bush." --- Posted at 1/27/2003 09:37:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/26/2003 Why Punish Achievement? I saw one of those typical right-winger letters to the editor yesterday saying we should cut taxes on the rich because, "Why Punish Achievement?" I was thinking, this crowd thinks we shouldn't tax income that comes to people through an inheritance. So that's taxing achievement? --- Posted at 1/26/2003 12:04:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Who Is Our Economy For? In today's New York Times there's a story, Is There Such a Thing as a Jobless Recovery? From the story, After falling into recession in 2001, the economy did indeed recover in 2002, hard as that is to believe. Despite a sluggish fall, most economists believe the United States expanded at close to 3 percent last year (final statistics are still being compiled). But because productivity — the amount of goods or services produced for each hour worked — is climbing relatively fast, last year's relatively tepid expansion created almost no new jobs. Instead, businesses are finding ways to get more production out of each current employee. In fact, the unemployment rate has risen from 3.9 percent in 2000 to 6 percent today.So the unemployed aren't finding jobs, more people are becoming unemployed, the people still working have to work harder to do the jobs the unemployed were doing, and many of them are afraid they're going to lose their jobs. Productivity means increases in wealth. But whose wealth? When you're working harder on the job for the same pay, that's called a productivity increase, and SOMEone is getting richer. But obviously it isn't YOU. Statistics show the wealth in America is concentrating at the top. WE're working (if we have jobs) and THEY're getting rich. Who is our economy for? Why are we tolerating this? --- Posted at 1/26/2003 11:44:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/25/2003 Bush Has Squandered Our Trust I posted this as a comment at DailyKos, and decided to post it here and No War Blog as well. What gets me is that Iraq could very well be the threat that the Bushies say. Iraq could very well be working on biological weapons or hoarding chemical weapons. They very well could be a threat to us, supplying terrorists, planning to hit us with smallpox, etc. If so, Bush has handled this outrageously! He has lied about Iraq. He lied about connections with Al-Queda. He lied about that report saying Iraq could have nukes in 6 months. He lied about the aluminum tubes. Getting caught lying at a time when they need the world to trust them is very bad. That, and other things he has done, have split us off from the rest of the world. Then, Bush pumped fear into the country, instead of being a leader that helps the public with their fears. They pumped fear into the population and then used that to get more of their far-right agenda passed. That is a very divisive thing to do and the country will be divided as a result for a long time. And Bush has politicized Iraq as well as the war on Al-Queda. They blatantly used Iraq to manipulate the election. This was even more divisive, but worse than divisive it undoes their credibility even with their own supporters who now assume everything has a wink and a nod behind it - that they're "only saying that" to win. Even the supporters don't trust Bush but go along because they fell Bush is doing what he has to do to beat the liberals and want to be on the winning side. And there has been this whole secrecy thing! Particularly excluding Democrats from consultation on matters of national security! What happens if this war in Iraq goes badly and they have to come to us for emergency appropriations, or for an emergency draft? They've divided the country before the war even starts. So here we are, unable to trust our own leaders. We may very well be under the kind of threat they say! If so, they have squandered their ability to pull us together by using the divisive tactics, and squandered the world's trust by lying to us. So here we are, not really knowing for sure if we're threatened, pumped full of fear by our own leaders... what a mess! --- Posted at 1/25/2003 06:15:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Even More Pension Trouble I've been writing about problems with pension funds for a while. Finally the problem is becoming publicly serious enough that it is gaining the attention of the mainstream press. (The problem isn't growing - awareness of the problem is growing. The problem is already huge.) Companies that promise employee pensions are required to set aside enough money to cover their future pension obligations. During the big stock runup, pension funds grew faster than the obligations, and companies TOOK MONEY OUT of the funds, increasing their apparent profit. Now that stocks are in the process of returning to reasonable levels, the companies need to put that money back, plus enough to cover additional shortfalls. This means that the companies must report lower profits, reducing their stock price. An additional component is that companies must calculate future obligations, which involves forecasting the rate of return the funds will receive on the money they have. Companies have been using very high rates of return for these forecasts. The higher the forecasted rate of return, the lower the amounts they need to have in the fund now, and the money not put into the fund goes to the bottom line, which raises their stock prices, which means executives get huge bonuses. (See where this is heading?) They're using forecasts of 8.5% returns! This is my most recent entry about the pension problem. It references earlier entries --- Posted at 1/25/2003 02:32:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/23/2003 Sad Go read The Agora. I read it in reverse order, from the "last" entry on the top, scrolling down to Tuesday. --- Posted at 1/23/2003 08:07:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
The Fattest Target Since Pearl Harbor From a great, great piece by Gene Lyons: It doesn't appear to have registered that if the White House geniuses really thought Saddam capable of attacking with "weapons of mass destruction," the well-publicized U.S. troop buildup in Kuwait offers the fattest target since Pearl Harbor.Not to mention the need for a draft to replace them - if we REALLY believe he has weapons of mass destruction and would use them. But I think the Korea situation shows us the reaction of the Bushies to a country that they actually DO think can harm us - instead of just using that as a rationale for a war they want. Update - Korea. What I said the other day - "Speak loudly and carry a don't-do-squat stick!" --- Posted at 1/23/2003 05:48:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Propaganda I just ran across a great site discussing propaganda. Go have fun. --- Posted at 1/23/2003 03:51:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Exploring Other Weblogs Dave Winer writes this about the cost of prescriptions and later points to this scary story at Brian D Busk's Weblog, about what can happen to you if you do not have health insurance. READ IT and be very afraid. Nathan Newman on China. TalkLeft has the Gary Hart speech that we should all read. Everything at The Hamster is good today, as always. Toby’s Political Diary talks about the relationship between Bush’s Texas record as executioner, and his drive for war against Iraq. Thinking it Through writes, ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER RIGHT-WING NUTJOB GETS A JOB WITH THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION. Everything at TBOGG is always great every day. Slacktivist has a bunch about Bush’s new appointee to the Presidential Advisory Commission on HIV and AIDS. skimble caught a piece about Helen Thomas calling Bush “the worst president ever” and then read the piece below that. --- Posted at 1/23/2003 10:29:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/22/2003 I Report - You Decide Got this e-mail from a reader. In the right-wing Fox Limbaugh Drudge spirit of just passing this kind of thing along, here it is: The Bush administration is about to start shipping a lot of smallpox vaccine. During the cold war the US spooks always watched for any kind of mass vaccination program against biowarfare agents. We knew that the Soviets vaccinated its military VS several agents, so we supposed that biowarfare was an option in battle situations. But civilian protection would presage something more sinister. Now the US is doing exactly that but under the excuse that we are afraid that somebody else will spread smallpox into our population. Supposedly, only a couple or three smallpox stocks were left in freezers after the disease was eradicated form the earth. The US, of course, has one of those acknowledged stocks and perhaps some that are more carefully hidden. Add to this the fact that the Anthrax spores used in the mail attacks came from a US Government lab (1) and you realize that was a practice run to gauge the public reaction and response. If Smallpox is released in this country, it will be by some elements in this current government and blamed on Iraq and/or Bin Laden. The Patriot Act and some other enabling legislation allows a virtual suspension of civil liberties in case of such a public health crisis. Doesn't this remind you of an analogous turn of events (Reichsteig Fire, etc.) in Germany (2) during the late Twenties and early Thirties. (1) Graduate training as a medical microbiologist and service on an industry advisory board to the EPA's anthrax task force convinces me of this fact. (2) Don't forget, those events staged by the Nazi party were partly financed by G.W. Bush's Grandfather.You decide. Leave me out of it. Remember - if Clinton were President, imagine what the wingers would be posting! They flatly claim he launched that strike on Bin-Laden to divert the press from Monica stuff - saying he "bombed an asprin factory." Now they'd be saying that his poll numbers are down, so he would do something like this. But leave me out of it. :-) --- Posted at 1/22/2003 04:50:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
State of the Union (2) I came across this great preview of the State of the Union speech. Hilarious! --- Posted at 1/22/2003 11:23:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
State of the Union Speech I expect that President Bush will use the State of the Union speech to do everything he can to scare the crap out of the American people. Rather than use his position of leadership - the "bully pulpit" - to calm a frightened public, Bush will continue to use language intended to whip up fear. This is their tactic. Our fear has been so useful to them. A terrified public will rally behind their leaders for their own protection. When we're under attack we must stand together. We will support our leader and will not tolerate breaking ranks. They terrify us and then they harvest the results. By terrifying us the right keeps us distracted, and uses the panic to push their agenda through the Congress. The Republicans politicized "the war" and the fight against terrorism. They drummed up the Iraq scare to influence the election – and it worked. A terrified public supports massive increases in military spending. It supports restrictions on the media. It supports restrictions on political criticism. Terrify us, then harvest the results. Terrify, then harvest. The new mantra of the Republicans: "Terrify, then harvest. Terrify, then harvest!" --- Posted at 1/22/2003 09:51:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/21/2003 Thanks BuzzFlash Some of the best things to read here are: Paying for the War, Military, Etc. When Facts Collide with Support The Commonweal Institute - Heritage Foundation of the Left Getting Rolled Remember to bookmark Seeing the Forest and visit again! --- Posted at 1/21/2003 04:58:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
New - BuzzFlash Headlines Scroll down a ways and you will see on the left (of course) a new section at Seeing the Forest - news headlines from BuzzFlash! More about BuzzFlash - see this piece. --- Posted at 1/21/2003 11:48:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/19/2003 Raising some Rabble with the Righties I just posted this as a comment (in the "Standards" entry) over at tacitus.org. (In response to a comment by "nerf" in the entry below.) Let me get this right - Bush went AWOL for 18 months, because he refused to take a drug test - and you guys don't think there's anything wrong there? That's desertion in time of war. Whether the Nat Guard was called up to VietNam or not, it's STILL desertion in time of war. Not to mention the drug implications! You want to bring up Clinton? Ok, Clinton got a student deferment - JUST LIKE CHENEY DID. Just like ALL OF THE LEADERSHIP OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY DID. And Clinton got a blow job. Get over it. Now, let's talk about Bush. He was a military pilot who refused a drug test. He deserted the military in time of war. That's a capital offense, guys! Please, tell me again how this is not a big deal.Go over there and raise some rabble. --- Posted at 1/19/2003 02:14:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/17/2003 Skippy Pointing to Bush AWOL Questions Skippy pointed me to a site titled A Military Career Distinguished Only by Favoritism looking into Bush's National Guard AWOL situation. Where was Bush? Why is this not a major issue? Even if just to be cleared up! What do we have here, Stalin? No one can question the king? --- Posted at 1/17/2003 07:57:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
More Pointing Now I'm going to point to Paul Krugman's column today, which ends with the line, Trust me: we're going to miss Rubinomics. Maybe not today, and maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and for the rest of our lives.He's saying here that we'll eventually pay a great price for Bush's deficits. I want to point out that the costs of tax cuts for the wealthy arrive sooner than that. We currently pay over $300 billion per year for interest costs because of Reagan's budget deficits. That amounts to a $300 billion tax increase, paying for Reagan's tax cuts for the wealthy. The kicker is, by and large, the wealthy receive that interest. So what we saw in the early 80's wasn't just a tax cut for the wealthy, it was also the creation of a huge government spending program, almost the largest item in the U.S. budget, almost entirely to the wealthy. This is also what the Bush tax cuts mean for our future. A huge spending increase - increased future debt interest payments from us to the wealthy. The current tax cuts are coming out of our Social Security money! We pay into Social Security, it runs a surplus, but that surplus is going out to the tax cuts for the rich. So not only will will have to pay interest to the wealthy, we will have to pay that interest instead of retirement payments to ourselves. --- Posted at 1/17/2003 11:55:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Pointing To Someone pointed out that I have been doing more "pointing to" than "talking" here lately, and he's right and I want to apologize. I know how much many of you depend on me so much, and I have been letting you down. (Especially you, Mr. Green Ralph Nader voter, Bush elector. You know who I'm talking about.) There will be much talking soon and the masses shall rejoice. Then, of course, Mr. Green Ralph Nader voter, Bush elector, will tell me I'm talking too much. But that's why I have a blog and he doesn't. (Yet.) In the spirit of pointing to instead of talking, I want to point you to The Sideshow today, writing about a poll showing most Americans believe that most or some of the Sept. 11 hijackers were Iraqis! Sideshow writes about the press allowing the Bush lies through, but also points out something important here: Still, bottom line: Ordinary people should bother to notice. Yes, the press at this point should be spelling out that none of the hijackers were Iraqi, but a year ago their actual nationalities were all over the media and now only 17% remember that?I've written that you can often tell the message that leaders are sending by checking out what the intended audience is hearing. But the intended audience has SOME responsibility, especially when they are allowing the country to go to war. --- Posted at 1/17/2003 08:48:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
SlashDot I see I'm a moderator over at SlashDot today. I'm taking bids here to "mod up" posts. Leave a comment including a dollar amount and your credit card number, and I'll go "mod up" your message or "mod down" a message you disagree with. (If you don't know about SlashDot and their moderating system, read the next post instead.) --- Posted at 1/17/2003 07:31:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Trying Too Hard The right is trying a little too hard to smear John Kerry. They're circulating a story that he said he "EXPRESSED 'HATRED' OVER TRIPS TO IOWA." Actually he said - about the need for campaign finance reform - "I hate going to places like Austin and Dubuque to raise large sums of money. But I have to." He hates having to raise the money. The right smears him, claiming he said he hates Iowa. Typical. Remember when they dredged up a letter Clinton wrote as a student, saying that he could understand why some people loath the military, and turned it into a widely-repeated smear that Clinton had written that he "loathed the military"? --- Posted at 1/17/2003 07:27:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/16/2003 Terrify, then Harvest Bush and the rest of the right-wingers have been working hard to scare the hell out of the public for some time now. And they have been harvesting the results politically. Now they're harvesting cash, too. Here's the headline piece in today's right-wing Heritage Foundation TowhHall.com e-mail. (To help you get the flavor of TownHall, today's e-mailing links to articles by "Thomas, Novak, Mackenzie, Fields, McCaslin, Williams, Kudlow, Elder, Chavez, Bartlett, Tyrrell, Chapman, and Coulter".) BIOCHEMICAL ATTACKS ON U.S. COULD BE IMMINENT Are you ready to protect your family? Unfortunately, most Americans aren't prepared to survive terrorist attacks. Worse, the U.S. government has told us nothing about what we can do to protect ourselves. Don't be a sitting duck! Find out what you can do to protect yourself from coming attacks.So let's click on the URL, and find out how to protect ourselves from IMMINENT chemical and biological attacks. While you are vulnerable, you are far from helpless. In a moment I’ll share five simple but potentially life-saving steps to take immediately to protect yourself. But first, you must understand the threat:... A few missiles fired against the U.S. could set off a nationwide plague, which would cripple, disfigure, and even kill millions of American citizens.... And, eventually, it gets to the point, I've been selling Surviving Terrorism in various newsletters and magazines for $199.00. Hundreds of people have bought it at this price. I’m convinced the potentially life-saving information it contains is worth every penny. In fact, this is still the price I am selling it for to the general public (check out my home page here). However, for a limited time, you can have this life-saving special report for only $97.00. That’s less than half price!I used to write direct mail, so I understand how this is being used. TownHall sent it out - so it's approved. Their approval demonstrates that they recognize how this "wartime Presidency" crap is about selling stuff to the rubes. Bush formula: Terrify, then harvest. P.S. One of the TownHall articles promotes Lieberman's candidacy! --- Posted at 1/16/2003 10:09:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Code Words for Southern Bigots In case anyone missed the point, Bush chose Martin Luther King's birthday to announce he opposes Affirmative Action. You can be sure the message was heard clearly by those for whom it was intended. "Lott's gone, but we're still with you." --- Posted at 1/16/2003 07:39:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Adjustments Jobless claims down by 32,000. But they warn that it might be off because - The level was much lower than Wall Street economists had been expecting but a Labor analyst warned that adjustments intended to deal with seasonal fluctuations in claims may have had a downward impact on the numbers. "The seasonal factors expected a lot more (claims) than we experienced," the analyst said.I'll bet this is the adjustment they made - this time of year there are a bunch of new unemployed because retailers lay off the Christmas help. They adjust for that so we don't get suddent huge jumps in the new unemployment claim figures. But this year retailers didn't HIRE as much extra Christmas help, so the adjustment wasn't needed. They made this mistake at the end of summer. They adjusted for all the kids who usually leave summer jobs, even though very few were hired this year. This is why the monthly employment numbers look so much worse than the adjusted weekly numbers. The monthly numbers are calculated using a different method, including surveys - actually checking with homes and businesses to see what's going on out there. --- Posted at 1/16/2003 07:30:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/15/2003 Democrats Didn't Cave! The Democrats didn't cave. That's news, and it merits a headline. And guess what, when they didn't cave they got what they wanted. --- Posted at 1/15/2003 09:34:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Animals I'm a vegetarian, and this LA Times op-ed piece today tells you why. (I eat some fish and once in a while I eat non-corporate-farmed turkey.) Factory farmers may do as they please in the care of animals, with no standard to consult but industry norms dictated by a rigid economic calculus and a view of animals as unfeeling machines.It's just one more aspect of the corporate ethic that is harming us all in so many ways. No regard for the environment. No regard for our kids. No regard for the poor. No regard for the elderly. No regard for our health. And this kind of stuff - horrible, cruel treatment of animals. In the merciless calculations of industrial production, the animals are not allowed to move because they would burn off more calories and require more feed. In short, as former presidential speechwriter Matthew Scully wrote in his book "Dominion," "Instead of redesigning the factory farm to suit the animals, they are redesigning the animal to suit the factory farm." In their overcrowded battery cages, the birds would peck each other to death. The producer responds to this descent into cannibalism by searing off the birds' beaks. The tendency of stressed pigs to bite tails is addressed just as summarily by lopping off the tails. What cannot be achieved through genetic manipulation is achieved by blunt force and sharp tools. For the misshapen and mutilated animals on factory farms, there is no breeze, no ray of sunshine, no rich soil under foot, no opportunity to root or graze in pasture.What sort of harm does eating meat - participating in this corporate atrocity - do to our humanity? Is there karma? Do we have a spirit? I don't know. I just know when something is really, really bad I shouldn't participate. An examination of the industrialization of animal agriculture raises important questions about public policy issues, including water and air pollution, public health threats from overuse of antibiotics and the loss of small farms as a result of corporate consolidation. But above all it raises questions of conscience and human responsibility in the care of animals.I was volunteering at the Santa Cruz SPCA several years ago, and one day I took care of a little pot-bellied pig. It was just like a little dog. It wagged its tail and came running over to me. It liked it when I scratched it behind the ears. I haven't touched red meat since that day. Some of us distance ourselves from the violence of meat, milk and egg production through vegetarianism. But we can all agree on this: If animals are reared for food, their lives should not be plagued by the occasional torture and the daily torments and deprivations of the factory farm. --- Posted at 1/15/2003 12:37:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
To My Green Friends My Green friends will like this over at Testify! You already know what I think. Update - Here's what Zizka thinks. Also here. He left a comment, but I'm pointing it out here. --- Posted at 1/15/2003 12:11:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Shit Approaches Fan I have been writing about the problems with corporate pension funds. This Dow Jones Newswire story just appeared online, Most Pensions Funds Suffer Shortfalls And it will be worse that you hear about. This appears in the story, The median expected rate of return on pension assets for S&P companies in 2001 was 9.2 percent, according to Credit Suisse First Boston Corp. analyst David Zion, the author of a well-regarded study on pension underfunding. Zion said numbers for 2002 aren't yet available, and predicted the median rate for 2003 will be 8.5 percent.In other words, they're in as much trouble as they are in, and that is with them reporting expected earnings of 8.5 percent on their funds next year. Yes, that's right, they're saying their funds will increase 8.5% in 2003. Part of why they are in this trouble is they reported "expected" increases of 9.2% in 2001, which, of course, didn't happen. Imagine how bad the books would look if they were reporting realistic returns on their pension fund investments! --- Posted at 1/15/2003 11:19:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
skimble I noticed that skimble has some great stuff up today and the last few days. Take a look. --- Posted at 1/15/2003 09:15:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/14/2003 The Game Go pretend you're Bush and play the Middle East War game! --- Posted at 1/14/2003 08:48:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Are You in a Union? Are you in a union? Not in your line of work, you think? You're a programmer? Working in sales? A middle manager? Marketing? (Weblogger?) Two years ago programmers, system administrators, web designers, product managers, marketing managers, all thought they owned the world. Now many can't find a job and have been looking for 6 months or a year or more. Wages are dropping, working conditions are deteriorating, jobs are being exported and the people they are exported to aren't paid squat so they aren't going to be buying whatever we do still make here. Click here for some things to think about. Wherever you work. Whatever you do. This is a good time to learn what would be involved in getting a union or a "professional association" going at your company. Assuming you're still employed, that is. Otherwise, maybe you should have gotten that union going while you still had time! (YES I'm talking to all of you HP workers, too, now that the second wave of layoffs is underway!) From the AFL-CIO page, How & Why People Join Unions, People who work for a living know about the inequality of power between employers and employees. Workers want to form unions so they can have a voice on the job to improve their lives, their families and their communities.The AFL-CIO site is a good website. Take a look around. Take a look at Executive Paywatch in the Eye on Corporate America section! --- Posted at 1/14/2003 07:49:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Fury and Accusations I'm reading this story, and I come across this line: The GOP response to these demands Tuesday was fury and accusations.So I'm thinking, "What else is new?" It doesn't matter what the article is about, does it? The Republican response to anything that doesn't go their way is always fury and accusations. Like a whining little kid. "It wasn't me! Billy did it!" --- Posted at 1/14/2003 04:20:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Why Was Bush on Cipro? Testify! wants to know. --- Posted at 1/14/2003 04:05:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Former U.S. Secretary of Labor Robert Reich Endorses Commonweal Institute Former U.S. Secretary of Labor Robert Reich has provided an endorsement for the Commonweal Insititute. --- Posted at 1/14/2003 03:09:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Bold In the news: Bush Could Revive 'Bold Initiative' for N. Korea Gotta give those right wingers credit for sticking to their talking points. A week or so back a focus group must have said that X% of target demographic Y responds favorably to the word "bold." So now everything is "bold." Even this message is bold. (That's an HTML insider joke.) I'm on board with the great white father, please don't put me in an internment camp. --- Posted at 1/14/2003 09:30:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Was Bush a Bed-Wetter? Democratic Veteran is looking for a FOIA (Freedom of Information Act) expert to help him get Bush's DD-214 released. From DemVet: The DD-214, for those of you not familiar with them, is a document given to everyone who separates from the service. The reason it's important is that it contains a "characterization" of the serviceman/woman's service. Pre-1974 or so, the program used what were called Separation Program Codes or Numbers (they are called both) which gave a very interesting set of characterizations to the separating member. Some of them were things like "bed-wetter", "homosexual"; you get the picture. Now for the punchline, a person could get an Honorable Discharge and have an SPC/SPN which was far from a characterization of Honorable. This system was amended in the '70's after it became common knowledge about the unfairness of the system and its often arbitrary application to people who were ummmm not mainstream or just not great performers or just did not show up, but you couldn't Courts-Martial sound like anyone we know?I think this is a worthy cause. Let's find out what Bush is hiding. --- Posted at 1/14/2003 06:46:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/13/2003 New Weblog Links You may have noticed that I have added quite a number of weblogs to my Essential Links list. I went crazy last week and added so many that I forgot everyone I had added so I didn't mention that I added any. Please let me know what's missing. ALSO I have changed my method of keeping my links up-to-date. I am using Blogrolling.com instead of manually adding links myself with hand HTML. One advantage is that Blogrolling also keeps track of whether blogs are recently updated, so if you see |UP| before the name of a weblog, it means that it has been updated in the last 3 hours. (I can change that.) If YOU are a weblogger and you use Blogrolling, just click the "Blogroll Me" link on the left to add Seeing the Forest to your links. If you are a weblogger who has not added Seeing the Forest to your links ... well ... ALSO go try out the "Roll your own me-zine" link over on the left there. I'd put a link here as well but then you wouldn't go try it over on the left there like I told you to. And finally, you can syndicate Seeing the Forest using the XML link over there. --- Posted at 1/13/2003 09:21:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Pension Trouble I've been writing about a coming crisis with pension plans. There's more news. In today's NY Times, Companies Fight Shortfalls in Pension Funds, After a three-year bear market, many major American companies are spending large amounts to shore up pension plans that have deteriorated, sometimes drastically. Many companies are also considering ways to reduce their pension obligations to workers, possibly undermining benefits for millions.The story goes on, (and here it gets a bit technical), The council, a business group that lobbies on employee benefits issues, is urging Congress to make permanent a temporary interest rate increase it granted companies for use in calculating total liabilities in 2002 and 2003. Without Congressional action, the temporary rate will expire at the end of this year, possibly doubling the amounts some companies will have to put into their pension plans, Mr. Gebhardtsbauer said.In other words, they want to CLAIM that they are earning up to 10% on their accounts when calculating how much they will have in their pension accounts, which means that if they do NOT earn 10% (and they aren't), the funds won't be there for retirees and they will have to reduce promised payments. As the NYTimes story says, allowing companies to claim high returns also means that their shortfalls are actually as much as double what they are currently claiming! Maybe even more. All of this also means that many companies are less healthy than their books currently show. So stocks that already have really high PE ratios, actually would have even higher PE ratios if you had a way of knowing how healthy the companies REALLY are. (Earning 10% - give me a break.) A second story today, US Airlines Pension Gaps Seen Wider -Fitch, "These growing obligations will inevitably lead to large increases in required cash contributions to pension plans, compounding the financial stress and cash flow concerns that already exist in the industry," he said.I've also been writing about how 401K plans actually screwed workers and handed the money that would have been used to fund their pensions over to the rich. (Pension plans - the company puts the money in and promises you a monthly amount for life. 401Ks - you put the money in (or not) and you try to make it grow (or not) and maybe you have money when you retire - but you must save enough to last if you live to 100 just in case you do, where a company pension plan only has to put in enough for the average lifespan. The ENTIRE obligation for retirement is thrown onto your back. The money that used to go to employee pensions is handed to the stockholders instead, 90% of them being a few rich people.) If you read the NY Times article, it looks like the people who were able to stick with pension plans instead of being shuffled off to 401Ks are also about to get screwed. How many of them do you think were convinced to vote Republican? --- Posted at 1/13/2003 11:50:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/12/2003 New Congressional Ethics Rules The new Republican Congress has removed many of the tough ethics rules. One example, lobbyists can now deliver food to members of Congress and their staff, up to $50 per person per meal. So what do Republicans say about a $50-per-person meal? "What we are talking about is Chinese food," said Jo Powers, the spokeswoman for David Dreier, the Republican representative from California who leads the rules committee. "It's not like steaks are being delivered."That's how Republicans feel about meals that cost "only" $50 per person! Another change allows charities to pick up the tab for travel and lodging for members to attend their events. Critics say this harks back to the days when House members cavorted with special interests on free trips to golf resorts. But, Ms. Powers said, "sometimes a member will be a big draw for charity." "If it will help the charity double their take, it's worth bringing them down," she added.Just to be clear, the Heritage Foundation is a "charity." Scaife's foundations are "charities." The Federalist Society is a "charity." --- Posted at 1/12/2003 08:33:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/11/2003 Hullabalo Digby says, "Throughout the campaign, as George W. Bush assured us that George W. Bush was "a leader because he could lead," (while others were quietly winking about the "grown-ups" keeping the frat boy out of trouble) I kept wondering," What will George W. Bush do when his grown-ups disagree?" How does a man like this make such a decision? How will someone with so little experience with responsibility --- someone who doesn't have even have an interest in understanding the complexities of making life and death decisions --- how does someone like this weigh competing interests, particularly since he doesn't appear to have developed even a Reaganesque set of basic principles to which he can always refer for simple guidance? "Maybe I'll stop posting for the night so you can go read the whole thing. It's just great! --- Posted at 1/11/2003 08:26:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
DemVet Democratic Veteran. --- Posted at 1/11/2003 08:23:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
CalPundit has all kinds of good things, and thinks we should pass a Constitutional Amendment to require the President to have press conferences. --- Posted at 1/11/2003 08:21:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Eating Crow Eatin' Words, over at Daily Kos says what I said here, but uses more and better words. --- Posted at 1/11/2003 08:17:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Crying Wolf This over at P.L.A. says it all. Great work! --- Posted at 1/11/2003 08:13:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
The Watch The Watch is a great blog today. I'm not putting up much here today so go there. --- Posted at 1/11/2003 07:56:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Back William Burton is back! --- Posted at 1/11/2003 04:11:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Bush, on Korea Speak loudly and carry a don't-do-squat stick. --- Posted at 1/11/2003 11:03:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/10/2003 9/11 Commission Chair Has Business Ties to Bin-Laden's Brother-In-Law! Right Wing Slayer points to this: New Chairman of 9/11 Commission had business ties with Osama's Brother in Law. Surprised? --- Posted at 1/10/2003 01:30:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Jobs and Stocks and Wishes Yesterday the stock markets soared, because the weekly "new unemployment claims" dropped a bit. Today the report is, OOPS, actually in December the economy LOST 101,000 jobs. The U.S. labor market took a turn for the worse in December as the economy lost 101,000 jobs, the government said on Friday, in contrast to expectations companies would add workers. The jobs drop was the largest since February, when the economy lost 165,000 jobs.So today stocks are ... up. Tell me, WHO is going to lead the economy out of the doldrums? WHERE are the customers going to come from? The other day a friend was telling me about the last several months before his company went under. He said all the signs were clearly there, but people couldn't accept it. People would seize on every small piece of potential good news and take it as a sign of imminent recovery. A major customer called and said there might be an order coming - everyone would rejoice, some would even buy new cars. (Of course the order never came.) The landlord let them out of a lease on one of their buildings - celebration, speeches by the CEO about the beginning of the turnaround. People held onto their stock, sure it would rise tenfold to previous levels. Finally, of course, inevitably, came the end. --- Posted at 1/10/2003 08:07:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/09/2003 Over at Toby's Political Diary Over at Toby's Political Diary - Let It Begin Here, Solidarity Forever is an inspiring piece. It is time to resurrect this concept—that solidarity among Americans means there is a limit to the income inequality that we will tolerate, a limit to the social costs corporations can impose, and an entitlement to a European quality of life, with vacation, health care, retirement, unemployment, training and an adequate welfare system.An informative piece is The Tax Cut and the 2 Million ton Cap. The bottom 80% of Americans lost ground in terms of share of income since the time of Ronald Reagan. The top 20% gained some share of income, but the top 5% gained nearly 75% of all share of income given up by the bottom 80%. This is not class war. It is class rape.Visit this weblog and read these pieces. I always gain from the experience. --- Posted at 1/09/2003 09:18:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Just Gets Bigger MaxSpeak notes points out that factoring interest costs into Bush's tax cut proposal brings the cost up to $899 billion. PLUS that isn't really a 10-year number, so if you factor in the years 2011 and 2012 it adds ANOTHER $600 billion. Go read why. Plus, the costs of increased military budgets and other things Bush is doing aren't yet factored into deficit projections. He really is trying to ruin our government! --- Posted at 1/09/2003 04:46:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
The Lotte From On A Path, "Bitter brew? For the past couple of weeks, those wags at Kramerbooks & Afterwords Cafe in Dupont Circle have been marketing a beverage called the "Trent Lotte." The menu describes the $3.25 item as "separate but equal parts of coffee and milk"Take a look at more at On A Path. --- Posted at 1/09/2003 04:33:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi Endorses Commonweal Institute House of Representatives Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has provided an endorsement for Commonweal Insititute. --- Posted at 1/09/2003 04:25:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Murdoch Gives Justice Thomas $2 Million Bribe! According to today's NY Times, Justice Clarence Thomas will receive a $2 million bribe from Rupert Murdoch! --- Posted at 1/09/2003 01:37:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
50% to Seniors! The other day I wrote, "If you have 1,000 people, and one of them gets $1 million, and the rest get nothing, these people will get an average of $1,000." Now Bush is telling the public that 50% of dividends go to seniors, and the chorus is on the radio, etc., telling people that this tax cut will supplement the Social Security payments of old people across the nation. Let me explain how 50% of dividends go to seniors. If you have 10,000 people, and one of these is aged 50 and gets $5,000,000 from dividends, and another one is 66 and gets $5,000,000 from dividends, and the rest of us get nothing, then 50% of the dividends go to seniors, and we all get an average of $1000. And, to repeat myself again, the rest of us get nothing. --- Posted at 1/09/2003 10:52:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Explaining PE Ratios I was probably a bit technical in my previous post. The way to value a stock is the ratio of its price to the earnings of the company. Theoretically each shareholder will receive some return based on the earnings of the company - either the company pays a dividend or the company reinvests profits into the company, making the company more valuable, increasing the potential for some future, larger dividend stream. And sometimes a company is sold and shareholders are sent checks. So to determine how much the share of stock is worth to you, you decide what multiple - how many times the company's earnings - you are willing to pay to hold onto the share. That multiple is called the PE Ratio, which means the ratio of the price of a share to the company's earnings per share. Historically the stock market goes through cycles of people being willing to pay higher multiples and lower multiples, and over time you see clear patterns. Stocks go through periods where people want to buy stocks and are willing to pay more for them, and the average PE ratios increase. Then something happens and people decide that stocks have less general value than they thought, so they sell stocks, and the prices of stocks decrease, until people decide that stocks are a good deal and start buying them again. Over time you can see a pattern of how high PE ratios can get before people start selling, and how low they can get before people start buying. Historically the average is about 15 or 16. Stocks are seriously overvalued! Look at the charts referenced below to see where the stock market PEs are now, compared to history. Today the PE ratio of the S&P 500 is 24.6. If you look at historical charts of PE ratios, you'll see that the cycles range from a high of a little over 20 (except this time) and then fall (a "bear market") to a low of under 10 (often well under 10) before they start a new rising cycle (a "bull market"). Currently stock PE ratios are well above historical highs! I think the PE of the stock market just before the 1929 crash was 21. (Remember, it's a cycle, stocks fall below the historical R of about 15 before they start to rise again.) And all this is calculated using the earning as reported by the companies in the last few years. That includes companies like Enron and WorldCom. As we now know, they were inflating their earnings. Core Earnings Standard & Poors has a new way to calculate earnings, called Core Earnings. Core Earnings don't use any of the bullshit that companies like Enron were using. This document explains Core Earnings, and says that for the 12 months ending June, 2002, Core Earnings for the S&P 500 were $18.48 per share. Compare that to the "As Reported" earnings of $26.74 per share, and think about what this means for current PE ratios. Current PE ratios are calculated using "As Reported." So using Core Earnings the current PE is closer to 50. (It is important to remember, the historical charts referenced here use "As Reported" earnings, so you can't compare current Core Earnings PE ratios, except to the point that you think companies were inflating earnings in the last few years and whether you think they were doing more of this than was done historically. If you think they were doing more of this in recent times, than historical "As Reported" PE ratios would likely be closer to current Core Earnings.) Charts. I'm linking here to a few charts showing the ratio of stock prices to the earnings-per-share, not the price of the stock, so there is no need to adjust for inflation, etc. They show you where stocks are valued at different points in the cycles. Take a look at these charts and decide for yourself whether stocks are priced where they should be, underpriced, overpriced, way overpriced, way seriously overpriced, dangerously seriously overpriced, or hairy sweaty steaming grunting screaming indubitably massively terrifyingly holy-shit way-momma uglified oh-my-god end-of-the-world overpriced. (I describe, you decide.) Here is a chart showing the range of PE valuations (calculated various ways) for 100 years (ending 2001). Here is a chart of PE ratios (also calculated various ways) from 1929 to 2001. These charts (PDF - see page 2) also show where the stock market is now, relative to history. Here is another chart of historical PE ratios. --- Posted at 1/09/2003 09:54:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Stocks At risk of repeating myself. (Well, actually, repeating myself.) The current PE (Price to Earnings) ratio of the S&P 500 is 24.6. This is where the stock market usually falls FROM, not TO. And this isn't even Core Earnings, it's earnings calculated the old-fashioned, corrupt way. Click here to see some charts. (Two links at the top of the page: Still Overvalued and Another Perspective.) --- Posted at 1/09/2003 06:42:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/08/2003 When Facts Collide With Support John Balzar has a very interesting op-ed piece in today's L.A. Times, A Scientific Name for Teflon Politics, explaining how people can continue to support Bush even if they don't like anything he's doing. It's called 'cognitive dissonance.' Because of 9/11 many Americans have been convinced it is vital to their safety and to the country to support Bush. So what happens when confronted with facts that might undermine that support? "People abhor inconsistency; they just don't like conflicting beliefs in their lives," Cooper explained. When two things we believe are in conflict, we iron out the wrinkles of dissonance. So if you believe in George W. Bush -- and polls say that a significant majority of Americans do -- but don't approve of cutting pensions for long-term workers, then (1) you can turn against Bush. Or (2) you can decide that Bush is right and that corporate interests are more important than worker pensions. Or (3) you can take the easy path and simply deny that pensions are in jeopardy.Lots of Americans clearly are choosing option 3. (Update) Later in the piece, With cognitive dissonance in mind, we can theorize why corporate and Wall Street scandals have not become a gripping crisis in American politics. Many people, it appears, resist evidence that free-market elitists have made a mockery of our treasured values of hard work and fair reward. To acknowledge it could call into question one's very purpose in society. It cannot be!There's a lot more to Balzar's piece, so go read it. --- Posted at 1/08/2003 05:01:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
It Didn't Work, So Do More of It I thought Bush's "1.6 trillion dollar tax cut" was supposed to fix the economy. Now it's worse. Bush's logic is, "It didn't work, so let's do it more." Over at WTF, Maru has this from last night's Crossfire: Rep. McDermott: Would you like to talk about how many people have lost their jobs since he took over? I mean, didn't he cut taxes a trillion dollars? He cut it a trillion dollars, and what do we have? More people lost their jobs. We're further in the hole. We're in deficit spending; this guy wants to go to war, which is a drag on the economy. And, at the same time, he wants to cut taxes. Now you can't do that. You cannot pay for a war and also give it out the back door.Actually, he has a lot more than this so go check it out! (And keep an eye on Novak's name as the transcript progresses.) --- Posted at 1/08/2003 01:30:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Changes at Commonweal Commonweal Institute has a new front page. This front page leads to a page that is largely the old front page. I think it improves the tone of their message. What do you think? --- Posted at 1/08/2003 12:01:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/07/2003 Reich Please read Robert Reich's piece in the LA Times, Bush Proves He's an Upper-Class Act. --- Posted at 1/07/2003 08:26:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Understanding the Tax Cuts Bush's tax cut proposal: The White House said the plan will give 92 million taxpayers an average tax cut of $1,083 this year.Here's how to understand how "you" are going to come out ahead from the Bush tax cut proposals: If you have 1,000 people, and one of them gets $1 million, and the rest get nothing, these people will get an average of $1,000. --- Posted at 1/07/2003 04:16:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Hooray for P.L.A. P.L.A. points out that during the campaign Bush claimed that it is "ingenuity and hard work and entrepreneurship" that "create jobs," not government policies. But NOW Bush is claiming that HIS plan will "create jobs." --- Posted at 1/07/2003 03:25:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
They Haven't Thought it Through Ted Barlow is writing about what will happen to tax-free municipal bonds - and the ability of towns, counties and states to raise money - if dividends are no longer taxed. The incentive to buy these bonds goes away! Is this part of the plan to gut our government, or have they not thought this through? I'm wondering what happens to stocks that are purchased because the value of the stock might go up? These are typically companies that reinvest their profits into their business, and start-ups. These types of companies will no longer be attractive, because you'll have to pay a capital gains tax when you sell them, and the only way to get your gain is to sell them - where investing in an established, profitable company paying a dividend means you will pay NO taxes. What does this do to the reason we have a stock market - to provide a source of investment capital for new companies, and companies that want raise money to innovate? Why would you want to purchase a stock that might go UP when instead you can purchase a stock that does not go up, but pays dividends? The implications are enormous! Update - Thinking more about this... Imagine the pressure there will be from stockholders wanting companies to cancel R&D projects and instead increase dividends! Here's a good one - this is an incentive for companies to borrow huge amounts of money and pay it out as dividends. Which brings to mind this scenario - a company's stock sinks to $1 per share. So they borrow enough to pay a $1 per share dividend and declare bankruptcy! This "no tax on dividends" scam opens up so MANY wonderful doors! And this is with just a few minutes of thinking about it. IMAGINE what kinds of scams and market distortions we'll see if they pass this! --- Posted at 1/07/2003 12:05:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Taxing Businesses Businesses are taxed on their profits. Businesses that do not have profits do not pay taxes. Therefore cutting taxes will not help a company become profitable. Taxes are not a "cost." The costs of doing business (salaries, cost of goods, other costs of doing business) are deducted before profits are determined. That's what a profit is. Taxes are calculated as a percentage of profits. (This discussion leaves out any property taxes, and tax breaks that some companies purchase with campaign contributions, hiring a politician's son or other relative, or other bribes, or otherwise obtain by doing things like opening a Post Office box in Bermuda or moving patents overseas...) Well-run companies hire and fire based on their need for employees. If a drop in business leaves little for employees to do the business will lay off employees, retaining just enough to do the work necessary to meet the demand for the products or services offered. If there is an increase in business the company will hire enough employees to meet the demand. Handing a bunch of cash to employers will not cause companies to hire employees if there is no demand for their products or services. It might, however, cause them to increase campaign contributions or payments to politicians' Swiss bank accounts. Or, it might be a reward for previous contributions or payments. (I would rather not not be sidetracked by a discussion of the merits of pre-paying your bribes or waiting until after the tax break is received.) Giving tax breaks to companies or to rich people does nothing to increase employment. Another implication from businesses being taxed on their profits is that businesses do not "just pass on taxes to the customer." A well-run business charges the most it can get for its product or service. If the business has competitors it has to price its product or service in some relationship to competing products or services. Were a business to add to to prices to cover taxes this would increase the price above what had been determined to be the optimal price! Perhaps a competitor is not as profitable, and therefore doesn't pay as much in taxes. That means the competitor will have a pricing advantage. If a company were to raise prices to cover taxes the it would mean the company was previously negligent in not pricing as high as the market would bear. Finally, increasing prices to cover taxes would increase profits, which would increase taxes, which would require an additional price increase, which would increase profits which would increase taxes. Companies do not pass on taxes to their customers. --- Posted at 1/07/2003 07:38:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/06/2003 Skippy is launching a campaign to syndicate radio talk-show host Randi Rhodes. friends, we are sure you are familiar by now with the plight of randi rhodes, a fine lefty on the radio in miami, who cannot get her bosses, clear channel, to syndicate her show because, according to her own testimony, rush limbaugh threatened to leave clear channel if they syndicate randi.Go help. --- Posted at 1/06/2003 04:56:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Bush's Real Agenda Don't be fooled for a minute by anything you hear claiming that Bush's tax cuts are about stimulating the economy or anything else. That's crap. It's bullshit. It is a smokescreen for what Bush is doing. Tax cuts are about gutting our ability (yes, OUR - that's who the gubmint IS, we the people, all that stuff from civics class...) to provide for our people. New York Times, August 25, 2001: President Bush said today that there was a benefit to the government's fast-dwindling surplus, declaring that it will create "a fiscal straitjacket for Congress." He said that was "incredibly positive news" because it would halt the growth of the federal government.He said this in one of those unguarded moments when he goes off script. Well, the government is having an incredible amount of "growth" right now in military spending, so he didn't mean spending. "Growth of government" is more Republican code words. He's talking about medical care, pensions, policing corporate crime, cleaning up the environment - the things that our government does for US. I previously wrote about this here. --- Posted at 1/06/2003 04:14:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Fascinating Blog So I've been exploring the Wealth Bondage blog, and came across Self Esteem for Judas: "Having betrayed Christ, and founded the Market, Judas -- this was before Prozac -- hung himself in a horse collar. Today, he would be elected President."It's a very ... interesting ... weblog. --- Posted at 1/06/2003 10:08:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Rats Remember the Bush "rats" campaign ad? Thomas Leavitt approaches rat stories from his unique perspective. --- Posted at 1/06/2003 09:15:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Wealth Bondage Wealth Bondage approaches the right-wing's creation of conventional wisdom from their unique perspective. --- Posted at 1/06/2003 09:11:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Democrats Not Invited Read this article in today's NY Times. More Democrats Not Invited, by Mr. "I'm a Uniter not a Divider." Ed Gillespie, one of the best-connected Republican lobbyists, recalls returning to work right after the election. He was greeted in his office by a hard-charging young Democratic member of his lobbying firm. "If you need me this morning," the young man said to Mr. Gillespie, "I'll be in the garage washing your car. Would you like me to do the hubcaps?" --- Posted at 1/06/2003 08:20:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/05/2003 Paying For the War, Military, Etc. The word "taxes" has been the subject of intense, well-funded, well-crafted, right-wing messaging directed at the public for 30 years. So now there is a negative connotation associated with the word - almost as bad as the dreaded 'L' word, "liberal." So instead of using the 'T' word, let's try a different approach. Think of taxes as paying for the Iraq war and increased military and government services. Who will pay for these things? The new Bush proposal will ask that people who receive dividends not be asked to pay anything for the war or other government services. (Keep this in mind - they say that this will benefit most Americans because most Americans own stocks. But this is crap - regular people have stocks in a 401K or IRA, and don't pay taxes on dividends NOW, because you don't pay taxes on gains in a 401K or IRA. And if the stocks are in a pension plan you also don't pay taxes on dividends.) Here's what WILL be taxed: -Money made from working at a job in an office or at a factory or as a janitor, etc. -Money made from savings interest. -Money made if you are a plumber, etc. (even though you are paid by people who already paid taxes on their income, so it will be "taxed twice," which is the justification for no dividend taxation. But that sort of nonsense justification only applies to money made by the really, really rich. Wink, wink, nod, nod.) -Money you receive as unemployment benefits. -A big chunk of your income from your job will go into Social Security - but only the first 85,000 is taxed - if you make more than that the tax stops. This is the largest tax most Americans pay. This money is currently going back out to the rich as tax cuts, because the deficit resulting from these tax cuts is also using up the Social Security surplus. In other words - the money that YOU make. Here's money that WILL NOT be taxed: -Money made from inheriting huge fortunes. -Money made from selling stocks. (Taxed at a much lower rate.) (This benefits primarily the top few % of wealthy.) -Money made from receiving dividends. (This benefits primarily the top few % of wealthy.) -Money made from selling a company. (Taxed at a much lower rate.) (Needless to day - this benefits primarily the top few % of wealthy.) -Money made from stock options received for being an executive at the company that laid you off. (This benefits the top few % of wealthy.) -Money made by corporations that move intellectual property offshore, then license it back to their U.S. branch. Example, a patent on a drug is "owned" by the Bermuda branch and licensed to the U.S. pharmaceutical company for the entire amount of their U.S. profits, so they pay no U.S. taxes on those profits. -Money made by corporations who have moved their mailing address offshore. (But these corporations WILL be allowed to continue to receive lucrative government contracts.) -Money and services received by executives as "expenses." -Income after the first $85,000 is not taxed for Social Security. In other words - the money that THE REALLY RICH make. Remember, your Social Security retirement money was given away to the really rich in the 1980's, through tax cuts. Now the money you currently pay into the Social Security system is also being handed to the rich through even more huge tax cuts. And the portion of the tax money that you pay that goes out as interest on the debt is also being given to the rich in the form of debt interest payments. A lot of the military budget is handed to wealthy corporations. The pension money that you would have received if you worked at a corporation was handed out to the rich in the 1980's in the form of increased stock price when pensions were stopped, and you were instead told to save your own money through an IRA or a 401K account. You pay. They get. And it's just getting worse. Update - a few words from No More Mister Nice Blog --- Posted at 1/05/2003 11:25:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/04/2003 Hullabaloo Needs Comments Digby's new Hullabalo weblog needs to get set up so people can leave comments. --- Posted at 1/04/2003 12:35:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Lawlessness on the Right InstaPundit is complaining because Maryland police are planning to use tips obtained during the sniper hunt to crack down on gun law violators. (Warning, the article referenced is in the Moonie "Believe It Or Not" Times so it's going to have a far-right propaganda slant!) From the article: "Our goal is to reduce illegal firearm possessions and violent crimes," said Capt. Nancy Demme, spokeswoman for the Montgomery County Police Department.and "Gun advocates portray the crackdown as evidence of continuing hostility toward gun owners by county officials."From InstaPundit: "This is sure to produce less cooperation in the future. And it explains why so many gun owners don't trust the authorities: They've seen things used as excuses for anti-gun sweeps in the past."I thought the right-wing line is there are enough existing gun laws, and the government should do more to enforce the laws already on the books, instead of passing new ones. But here we see that when the government DOES that, it's met with complaints. I guess we were supposed to see the wink and nod and understand that "enforce the laws already on the books" was just a "talking point" to use to block effective gun control, and they didn't really MEAN it. --- Posted at 1/04/2003 12:05:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
They're BACK! Media Whores Online is BACK!!! --- Posted at 1/04/2003 11:38:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Stimulate This This CalPundit piece about Bush's so-called "Stimulus Plan" is good. Go check it out. Bush is saying, "I understand the politics of economic stimulus -- that some would like to turn this into class warfare. That's not how I think." It made me remember this from August, with one of my favorite quotes, A friend of mine says, "Republicans know how to fight a class war. And then they say you're the class warrior, and usually you even don't know what's happening to you."Remember their tactic - when they accuse you of something, it means they're actually doing what they're accusing you of. --- Posted at 1/04/2003 11:18:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/03/2003 More Who Makes Things Better Some great charts here. (See previous post here.) --- Posted at 1/03/2003 04:53:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Third Annual Bloggies The Third Anual Bloggies Weblog Awards are taking nominations. --- Posted at 1/03/2003 09:43:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
Arguing with right-wingers. I got in a spat with some right-wingers over in the comments section of this message at TalkLeft. I violated my first law - arguing with right-wingers will only make you crazy; they argue the forest - right-wing smokescreens - instead of the trees - details, history, facts. They're online but seem surprisingly uninformed about things like Bush's service record! Also, TalkLeft opposes reinstating the draft for honorable reasons. I've commented on it here (we need a draft) and here (if the Iraqis REALLY have weapons of mass destruction we need a draft). What do you think? --- Posted at 1/03/2003 08:23:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
1/01/2003 Figure it Out - It's About Your Job Thanks to Thomas Leavitt for pointing me to this column in Fortune, "Finally a Productivity Payoff from IT?" It explains that your job will be lost to "business process outsourcing." "While it’s not something we immediately associate with computing and networks, it’s only after companies are automated and connected by a commonly accessible network (the Internet) that they can easily create links between themselves and their suppliers. Work can be passed seamlessly from worker to worker regardless of location."Does he mean we will all get to telecommute? Not exactly. "But the cost-savings grow really huge when companies exploit the big discrepancies in labor rates between the U.S. and still-developing countries like India, and outsource entire business processes to operators far away. International business process outsourcing, or BPO, started a few years ago with call centers, and it’s spreading to a wider variety of jobs. It may enable a quantum leap downward in labor costs."AH! Now we're beginning to get to the point. "For instance, an Indian national software association estimates that what it calls "IT-enabled services" provided in India for customers elsewhere will rise from $1.46 billion annually to about $17 billion in five years. By then over a million Indians could be engaged in these businesses. High growth rates are also expected in Eastern Europe and Latin America and the Caribbean. Countries with the biggest near-term opportunity are those with large English-speaking populations, such as Jamaica, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore."So what does this mean for YOUR job? "The potential extent of this kind of work migration is vast. I’ve heard of new operations in India set up to read mammograms from U.S. hospitals. Architects in Sydney, Australia subcontract some of their work to lower-priced architects in Singapore."Your job eventually WILL be sent to people who will work for much less, where the environmental standards are lower, where there are no worker health and safety laws. And then their jobs will be sent where people will work for even lower pay, with even lower environmental standards, etc. Without regulations in place to control this, your company must do this or go out of business, because its competitors surely won't hesitate. The honest, sincere, management-from-the-heart people currently running your company won't have any choice, because the laws of economics applied without consideration for the human consequences necessitate this conclusion. Repeat: Without regulations to level the playing field they will not have a choice in the matter. This is what "free trade" means without controls in place to protect working people. It's the law of supply and demand. In a world with free movement of jobs and a surplus of labor, wages must fall to the lowest level necessary for subsistence - and the rest will starve. So the question to ask is, "Who is our economy for?" How soon will you be joining the servant class - assuming you're lucky enough to find even a servant job? There are QUITE a few former "Internet libertarians" in Silicon Valley spending their newfound idle time in coffee shops (or writing weblogs), collecting unemployment checks and reconsidering their politics. Einstein explains it here. "Insofar as the labor contract is "free," what the worker receives is determined not by the real value of the goods he produces, but by his minimum needs and by the capitalists' requirements for labor power in relation to the number of workers competing for jobs. It is important to understand that even in theory the payment of the worker is not determined by the value of his product."Follow the link for more. --- Posted at 1/01/2003 08:45:00 PM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
We Need a Heritage Foundation of the Left Today's NY Times has this story, Outflanked Democrats Wonder How to Catch Up in Media Wars. The article discusses attempts to build moderate/progressive voices similar to the web of right-wing organizations and media outlets anchored by the right-wing Heritage Foundation. From the article, "The [Heritage] foundation is part of a circuit of influential conservative groups that are credited with helping to hone a singular message, bolstered each Wednesday at back-to-back meetings held by Grover Norquist, the head of Americans for Tax Reform, and the conservative activist Paul Weyrich. Those meetings are monitored and at times attended by some conservative commentators, columnists and Internet writers. Democrats have long claimed that the circuit has corralled conservative thinkers, and more important, conservative media, into a disciplined message of the week that gets repeated attention from Web sites like the Drudge Report, Mr. Limbaugh's radio show, Fox News's prime-time talk shows and the editorial pages of The Washington Times and The Wall Street Journal."If you agree with the article, go give some money to the Commonweal Institute. It's important for our voices to be heard as well! --- Posted at 1/01/2003 11:50:00 AM by Dave Johnson Link to this | | | | e-mail this post
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